England's most deprived areas are set to worsen by the next election, according to a report commissioned by No 10. The Independent Commission on Neighbourhoods (ICON) predicts that crime rates and unemployment will rise in England's 613 most deprived neighbourhoods, despite the government's promises to invest in local communities. The report's authors warn that the extra money pumped in by ministers is insufficient to counteract long-term trends such as the increase in antisocial behaviour and the challenges faced by the retail and hospitality sectors. This finding will likely fuel growing unrest among northern MPs over the government's changes to local government funding, which they believe will deplete funds from northern towns. It will also be a grim revelation for Keir Starmer, who has pledged to combat the political threat of Reform UK by investing in local communities and regenerating deprived neighbourhoods. Ross Mudie, ICON's head of research analysis and the report's author, highlights the real-terms cuts in areas like Blackpool and Knowsley, emphasizing that the government's efforts are merely closing the gap on some cuts, leaving councils with historically high levels of deprivation in a weaker financial position. Former minister Justin Madders, a Labour MP, warns that the government's plans are insufficient to reverse the decline in northern towns. He calls for a comprehensive plan with adequate funding to demonstrate Labour's positive impact at the next election. Mudie also criticizes the government's Pride in Place scheme, which provides £20 million over 10 years for local regeneration, as insufficient to address the damage to disadvantaged neighbourhoods. He argues that bolder measures are needed to reverse a decade of austerity and structural decline. ICON's analysis categorizes neighbourhoods based on their distance from achieving Starmer's 'missions', with neighbourhoods facing longer wait times for NHS treatment and lower school readiness deemed more deprived. The 613 'mission-critical' neighbourhoods, predominantly in the Midlands and the north, are home to 1 million people and have been targeted by Reform UK. Mudie's analysis reveals higher crime and economic inactivity rates in these areas, which are projected to worsen over the next four years. The average crime rate is already over double the English average and is expected to rise further. Economic inactivity is set to increase from 45% to 46% by 2030. The only area expected to improve is health outcomes, with the percentage of people in poor health decreasing slightly. ICON's separate report suggests an additional annual investment of up to £2.5 billion for disadvantaged neighbourhoods, emphasizing the urgency of the situation.
